How To Fix The Mets 2010

Mets fans have suffered through a miserable 2009 campaign. (Photo Courtesy: NYTimes.com)

Don’t think I have to go into detail on how bad the 2009 season was for the New York Mets, or how bad it’s been the last 2 years. This off-season, the Mets will have to make some drastic changes. Below I will make a rough outline on who the Mets should target this winter, mostly from the free agent market. I will assume a few things. First, the Mets want to be competitive next season and won’t stand pat with their team or fire sale. Second, The Wilpons, despite their Madoff losses, will spend some money. Third, contracts will be similar to last year’s FA market. Now let’s get started:

GM & Manager- I know Minaya and Manuel aren’t going anywhere, they should be though. I think the Wilpons will keep them around solely so they won’t have to pay the remaining salary on their contracts if they get let go. Minaya needs to go and so does Manuel. The Mets’ should look at if Bobby Valentine would be interested in coming back to NY to manage since he is no longer wanted in Japan. They won’t though, and unfortunately, Minaya & Manuel are here to stay.

Catcher- Big need for the Mets. Brian Schneider will not be re-signed, but there is not a lot on the market here. Bengie Molina should be the #1 target, but only if it’s for a decent price. After that it’s not very good. Ivan Rodriguez & Rod Barajas would be next on the list, though Texas wants to re-sign Pudge. If Molina or Pudge can’t be signed, rookie Josh Thole might be the best option to start and any veteran to back-up. Of course there could be a trade made, but I’m mostly looking at fixing the team through free agency.

First Base- Another major need for the Mets. Carlos Delgado shouldn’t be re-signed, unless options fall through and he can be brought back for a low price. I don’t know if Daniel Murphy is the answer either. Nick Johnson would be a good target that could fit in nicely for the Mets, but his health and eroding defense is a major concern. Adam LaRoche might be a better choice than Johnson, he is putting up some good numbers for Atlanta, hitting .283 with 25 homers. Prince Fielder’s name will probably be all over the winter trade rumor mill for many teams, and he would obviously be the best option for the Mets if they could get him. Another option would be trading for Nationals’ left fielder Adam Dunn and moving him to 1B, though Dunn’s defense is terrible. The Mets need a good power hitter at first, because they need to up their power numbers next season to compete.

Second Base- Luis Castillo is having a great 2009 and has an immovable contract, he’s not going anywhere.

Shortstop- Jose Reyes is a great SS and is an important part of the core of this team, when healthy.

Third Base- Like Reyes, David Wright is part of the core of the team and the face of the Franchise. However, his decreased power numbers and strikeouts are disconcerting.

Outfield- This is where the options are plentiful in the FA market. Center fielder Carlos Beltran stays put under center, as he is still one of the best and just as important to the team as Wright or Reyes.  Ray’s Carl Crawford has a $10 million option, which the Rays would be crazy not to pick up. But, the Rays might pick up the option to trade Crawford. if that is the case, the Mets should do whatever they can to acquire him. Crawford should be target #1. If not Crawford, Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are obvious targets for LF. Jeff Francoeur is nice in RF, but there are many options if the Mets want to put someone with better numbers there. Bobby Abreu, Vlad Guerrero and Xavier Nady will be available. But, Abreu and Guerrero are aging players. There health issues with Nady and Guerrero too. Gary Sheffield wouldn’t be a bad option to be re-signed and being a pinch hitter.

Starting Pitching- The biggest problem area for the Mets in my opinion. I saw this as a glaring weakness for 2009, even if the staff was fully healthy. I don’t care how much Oliver Perez will make, he wouldn’t have a spot in my rotation on any team. Johan Santana is the obvious ace, after that there is much need for improvement. I would keep John Maine and Mike Pelfrey to fill out my number 4 & 5 spots respectively. John Lackey is an obvious target. A 1-2 of Santana and Lackey would give the Mets one of the best in the MLB, which would definitely compete with the Phillies’ 1-2 of Hammels- Lee. However, if Lackey isn’t re-signed by the Angels, something could be wrong there.

Justin Duchscherer is another great option to look at, as is Jason Marquis, who has already expressed interest to playing in New York. Taking a flier on Ben Sheets or Erik Bedard has definite upside, at the right price. I would be weary on pitchers Randy Wolf, Joel Pineiro and Rich Harden. Wolf might be having a career year. With Pineiro, any pitcher that was bad before going to St.Louis scares me when they leave, look at Jeff Weaver and Jeff Suppan. I feel it’s more the Cardinal pitching coach Dave Duncan effect than anything else. Rich Harden could be a great pick-up if he can return to his old self and stay healthy, but I think his best days are behind him.

I know this plan would take quite a bit of money and the Wilpons seem to be holding their checkbook tightly these days, but they will need to spend to compete seriously next year.

2011 Free Agent Market

MLBTradeRumors.com has a post up today about the potential 2011 MLB free agent market. Obviously depending on what happens this off-season and during next season, the free agent class could change. The position department is kind of weak, but the starting pitching is very interesting.

Among the position players, the 2011 free agent class is highlighted by C Joe Mauer, 1B Carlos Pena and Derek Lee, SS Derek Jeter, 3B Aramis Ramirez (Player Option) and OF Adam Dunn. I doubt Jeter is going anywhere and I see the club options of 1B Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman, SS Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins, and OF Brad Hawpe being picked up.

Closers Huston Street and Mariano Rivera will be available, and Brian Fuentes has a vesting option. Of course there are a lot of relievers on the market as there usually is a decent lot available every year.

The Starting pitchers available is where it gets good. Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Joe Blanton, Ted Lilly, Kevin Millwood, Javier Vasquez, and Jorge De La Rosa. Reds’ pitchers Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo have club options which I think will be declined. Matt Cain (vesting option), Jeff Francis and Chris Young (club options) most likely will be staying with their respective teams.

2011 should be interesting. I can definitely see record breaking contracts for Joe Mauer and possibly Roy Halladay, though not too many years for Halladay.

Who Wants A Halladay?

Everyone is trying to figure out trade scenarios for Roy Halladay. It’s funny when just because a GM, in this case Toronto GM J.P Ricciardi, says he would listen to offers, everybody automatically thinks that player will be traded. In reality all GM’s listen to offers, they wouldn’t be doing their job if they didn’t. I don’t believe Halladay will be traded unless the Jays are like Ricciardi says, “Blown away” by an offer.

Halladay is under contract until after the 2010 season for only around $15 million.  He also has a no-trade clause which makes him harder to deal. If the Blue Jays didn’t have so many injuries to their starting staff, they probably would be a serious contender in the AL. Next season it could all come together for the Jays.

With that said, let’s assume that the Jays are serious about trading their ace. I’m sure most of the real contenders in the MLB are interested.  With the cost it would take in prospects and in a new contract, I’m going to knock a few teams out. I think the most serious teams will be the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Phillies, and Rangers.

1. Phillies- I think the most likely and sensible destination for Halladay. The Phillies need starting pitching desperately to be a serious contender for a repeat. Halladay would give them a dominant starter that is better than Santana. The Jays would be able to trade Halladay out of their league. The two issues are whether Halladay would want to go to Philly and pitch in a hitter friendly park and whether the Phils are willing to part with enough to get him. I think the Phillies should do whatever it takes to get him.

2. Rangers- The Rangers have been desperate for years to get good starting pitching and I think they are definitely willing to take the extra step to acquire great pitching. The Rangers certainly have the prospects to land Halladay. Much like the Phillies, a major issue is whether Halladay would want to pitch in Texas. If the Jays trade in the AL, I can definitely see Texas as a landing spot.

3. Mets- They are desperate for pitching and adding a star to their fading team.  I just think there is anything in the Mets system worthwhile. All their top prospects have really struggled on major level. They might push hard but I don’t think they have enough.

4. Red Sox- I can see the Sox also pushing hard for this. They have pitching depth, but I think they would trade some of their young top pitchers for another ace. I think adding Halladay would make Boston unstoppable and as close to an automatic for the World Series as possible. I just highly doubt that the Jays would trade within the division.

5. Yankees- After the homeruns that Halladay gave up last week, I don’t think Halladay would like to pitch in the new Yankee Stadium more often. Also, like the Sox I don’t think the Jays would trade to a division rival.  The Yankees will pursue hard like they always do for available stars, if only to make it harder for the Sox to acquire him. However, the Yanks passed on a younger Santana for a package of prospects that wouldn’t compare to what it would take to get Halladay. That said, I believe Halladay is better than Santana and like I said with Boston, would make the Yankees an unstoppable championship force.

All in all I don’t think the Jays will trade Halladay. In fact an extension wouldn’t surprise me. If next season they are out of it by the trade deadline, then I can see him being traded. If you forced me to pick a place for Halladay, I would say Philadelphia.

Hot Stove: Where Will They Go? Part Deux

It’s February and there is still a ton of free agents available. I won’t do a top ten list like I did a few weeks ago, rather some of the free agents who aren’t on the list.

RP Juan Cruz- Someone has to pick up this guy right? He is hurt by being a middle reliever and a type A free agent. I believe the Yankees still make the most sense, because they would only have to give up a fourth rounder for Cruz. However, the Yankees don’t seem to be interested, but I think eventually they will sign him.

SS Orlando Cabrera- Think the Giants regret giving all that money to Edgar Renteria, while they could of got a better shortstop for half the price? Not sure where he can go, seems to be very little interest, but I can see him going back to the team he won a World Series with, the Boston Red Sox. He’s much better than Julio Lugo and can give more time for Jed Lowrie to develop. If the price is right it would be a good fit.

3B Joe Crede- His back issues raises some questions, but he is still a decent third baseman. The Twins seem to want him, but I am going to say the Giants sign Crede.

OF Ken Griffey Jr.- I don’t think he will be one of the veteran free agents who are forced to retire because of the lack of interest. I say Griffey still goes back to the Seattle Mariners.

P Pedro Martinez- The Mets signing of Oliver Perez probably disappointed Martinez, who was hoping to return to Queens. There are rumors of the Pirates really wanting Martinez, but I’m going to say he goes to the Phillies. The Phillies seem to be looking for another starter that is cheap and could be good.

P Braden Looper- I think he goes to the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are looking for a inexpensive decent veteran starter.

INF Nomar Garciaparra- Nomar would be a great bench pick up for a team. I see the Yankees signing him, they need a good bench player and I don’t think Cody Ransom is the answer.

C Ivan Rodriguez- Pudge can still play. I think he goes back to the Marlins as their back-up catcher.

LF Garret Anderson- Not sure where Garett will land. He can still hit, but he is more of a DH type than a left fielder. The Mariners make sense if they don’t sign Griffey. I’ll say Anderson lands with the Mets.

LF Moises Alou- The Phillies seem to have an interest in Alou. Not sure why they do, I thought his career was over when he got hurt last season. But he can hit when healthy, and the Phillies want to add a right handed bat, so I say he goes there.

The $15 Million Man

Okay, last post on Manny until he signs, I swear.

Today, I read a post on the Yankee blog, River Ave Blues, talking about because of the lack of interest for the services of Manny Ramirez , Manny might have to settle for a contract around two years and $15 million per. Ben brings up the idea of the Yankees maybe then trying to pick up Manny.

While this is just rumor mongering, it is an interesting idea.

However, Manny to the Yanks is almost impossible.

The first issue is that the only reason Manny might have to take a short term contract and less than $20 million per year is that there are only two teams involved, the Dodgers and the half-hearted Giants. Obviously if the Yankees got involved, the price for Manny would increase. The Dodgers have shown they are willing to go $20 million+ per year for Manny by their old offer of 2-years $45 million. The Yankees would probably have to give Manny a 3-year deal around $23-25 million per. The Yankees don’t want to spend that much money on another free agent.

For argument’s sake let’s say that the Dodgers don’t want to spend more than $15 million for Manny, the Giants don’t get seriously involved in the negotiations, and the Yankees can sign Manny for a two-year deal at around $15-17 million per year. Do you really think Manny Ramirez, who is all about the money and with his behavior history, will really play hard for about $10 million and two years short of what he believes he is worth?

Manny also would make considerably less than many of his Yankee teammates for equal or better production. I think it would be a disaster and Manny would want to be traded by season’s end.

However, Manny could be motivated in a two-year deal knowing he has another shot at free agency when the economy could be better, as long as he doesn’t believe his production would slip much at that age.

Even if all the above works out in the Yankees’ favor, there is still the dilemma of the outfield/DH logjam. I would think for the Yankees to get Manny, Hideki Matsui and one of either Xavier Nady/Nick Swisher would have to bet traded. This would open a spot for Manny and give them payroll relief for another big contract. The Yankees could actually reduce payroll by getting rid of Matsui and Swisher/Nady and adding Manny for about $15-17 million.

I believe the ideal situation would be trading Matsui, because he can’t play outfield anymore, is an injury risk, and is owed $13 million, and trading Nady because he has more value than Swisher and only 1 year remaining.

It would be very difficult to trade Matsui without taking a bulk of his contract and/or receiving little in return. Nady also wouldn’t bring back much in a trade because he has 1 year left, and the free agent market is full of corner outfield choices.

The Yankees would need to make these trades first and then bank on the chance no team wants to spend more than $15 million on Manny. I also full heartily believe more teams would get involved if his price tag drops to that, especially the Mets. Did I also mention how its clear that nobody who matters in the front office (doesn’t include you Hank) really wants Manny on the team?

I guess for as long as Manny Ramirez is out there and the thought of the 3-4-5 consisting of A-Rod, Manny and Tex, the Manny to Yankees rumors just won’t die. Trust me though, they died once Mark Teixeira signed.

In the end, I still think he goes back to the Dodgers, though the Giants and Mets should be taking a more serious look.

What Will The Mets Do?

The Mets should sign Ben Sheets not Oliver Perez.

Now that the Braves have snatched free agent pitcher Derek Lowe away from the Mets, what will the Mets do the remainder of the off-season? GM Omar Minaya seems fixed on signing free agent lefty Oliver Perez now, or take  a longer look at Ben Sheets. I feel the later would be a better choice if the Mets want to make the playoffs in 2009. Sheets has ace stuff and if he’s healthy the Mets could have a great 1-2 in the rotation. The issue is the “if,” Sheets has serious health concerns with his shoulder. Perez would be a safer choice to sign, but I don’t believe his addition is enough to have a great rotation.

The other pitchers that round out the rotation are Santana, Maine, Pelfrey, and Redding. Santana will be Santana, though he isn’t the same pitcher he was 3 seasons ago. Maine and Pelfrey are good starters, Maine is a good #3 starter and Pelfrey is still young and needs more experience. Redding is an average starter and decent as a #5. There is no real #2 starter on this team, and Perez is definitely not one, though he has talent.

The Mets to contend in the revamped NL East need to make power moves.  Signing Oliver Perez & Tim Redding seem only enough to make the Mets a third place team. Though the Mets have improved their bullpen with Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz, it’s not enough. The Braves have a much improved rotation and at this point seem to be the second place team in the east, with the world champion Phillies in first, and watch out for the Marlins, who I believe will be a good team this season.

The Mets should take a shot on Sheets. They should sign Manny Ramirez or at the very least Bobby Abreu, they need a outfielder and a bat, currently the Mets’ outfield has the look of a rebuilding team’s outfield not a contenders.

If all the Mets do is sign Perez, it will be a long season for Mets fans.

What To Do With The Yankee’s Logjam?

The Yankees shouldn't be in a hurry to trade Xavier Nady (above) and Nick Swisher

The Yankees are looking to deal either Nick Swisher or Xavier Nady to relieve the logjam in the outfield. Obviously, the perfect scenario would be someone taking Hideki Matsui off the Yankee’s hands, but that’s not happening.

I believe that a trade shouldn’t be made, at least not yet. There questions with the outfield. Matsui hasn’t been healthy the last two seasons. Whats to say that he won’t injure those knees again? Johnny Damon is another year older and he could also suffer an injury this year. Also what if either Swisher or Nady don’t work out. Swisher didn’t have a good season last year and Nady has only been a full time player for a short time and had a career year last season, what if he reverts back to a platoon player?

Whats the harm keeping both for at least through spring training? Injuries could occur on the Yankees or on other teams during spring training, which would only increase the trade value of Swisher/Nady. If everyone is healthy “worst case” scenario (or best case) you have a bat on the bench with some pop, which the Yankees have been lacking on their bench since the days of Ruben Sierra. Both players have been bench players before, especially Nady.

I believe it would be a mistake to trade either Nady/Swisher before the end of spring training. I would even wait until further into the season. Time can only be a benefit to the Yankees.

Best Remaining Free Agent Roster

Here is my 25-man roster of available free agents. I chose to have  12 pitchers, and 13 position players with no DH. My backups aren’t players who I don’t think could start, but just the next best available free agent at their position.

Catcher: Jason Varitek

First Base: Adam Dunn (Can play first, but mostly a left fielder)

Second Base: Orlando Hudson

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera

Third Base: Ty Wigginton

Left Field: Manny Ramirez

Center Field: Gabe Kapler

Right Field: Bobby Abreu

Starting Pitcher: Derek Lowe (RHP)

Starting Pitcher: Ben Sheets (RHP)

Starting Pitcher: Oliver Perez (LHP)

Starting Pitcher: Andy Pettitte (LHP)

Starting Pitcher: Randy Wolf (LHP)

Relief Pitcher: Juan Cruz (RHP)

Relief Pitcher: Will Ohman (LHP)

Relief Pitcher: Dennys Reyes (LHP)

Relief Pitcher: Joe Beimel (LHP)

Relief Pitcher: Brian Shouse (LHP)

Relief Pitcher: Russ Springer (RHP)

Relief Pitcher: Brandon Lyon (RHP)

Backup Catcher: Ivan Rodriguez

Backup Middle Infielder: David Eckstein

Backup Corner Infielder: Joe Crede

Backup Outfielder: Garret Anderson

Backup Outfielder: Eric Hinske

Giant Favorite

Bengie Molina led the Giants offense in 2008 with 16 homeruns.

I have been hearing a lot lately that the San Francisco Giants could be the favorite in the weak NL West. They added Randy Johnson, who will be  a great third starter. Their pitching is no doubt deep, but the larger issue is their anemic offense.

Last season one player only finished with an above .300 average, Randy Winn with .306, and the most homeruns on the team belonged to catcher Bengie Molina with 16.

The Giants adding shortstop Edgar Renteria does help the offense, but more needs to be done to make the Giants have a good enough lineup to be a favorite in the NL West.

The Giants are flirting with free agent slugger Manny Ramirez, but how serious are the Giants? Is the interest just to drive up the price for the Dodgers?

The Giant’s moves of Randy Johnson and Edgar Renteria give me the impression that the Giants want to win now.

They should go all out in signing Ramirez. The Giants signing Ramirez adds a huge bat to the lineup and takes away a huge bat from a division rival. The baseball analysts are right in the opinion that Ramirez is a division changer. In 2008 Ramirez single handily slugged the Dodgers to the postseason. Ramirez would immediately make the Giants a threat in the division.

If the Giants lose out on Ramirez they could spend that $23 million reserved for Manny on other free agents that would bolster the offense. They could sign free agent 2B Orlando Hudson and either Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu to play the outfield. Hudson is an immediate second base upgrade to whoever the Giants have. Dunn gives the Giants the homeruns they have been desperately lacking and the walks. Abreu gets in the runs and has a high on base percentage. Abreu and Dunn could come cheap after the recent affordable signings of Jason Giambi, Milton Bradley and Pat Burrell. I think Dunn would fit best for his pop and his walks.

Regardless with whatever the Giants do, the team to beat in the NL West, I think, will be the Arizona Diamondbacks not the Giants.

Hot Stove: Where Will They Go?

Below, I will rank  the top 10 remaining free agents and predict where they will go.

1. Manny Ramirez, LF- He’s going back to the Dodgers. The Dodgers need Manny to compete and they can’t afford the rival Giants to sign him. It looked for a while that the Dodgers would wait for Manny to crawl back to them, because of the lack of Manny interest. But teams are now looking at Manny, so Manny and the Dodgers will meet somewhere in the middle. I believe the biggest threat to the Dodgers would be if the Mets get interested, which for some reason they aren’t.

2.  Derek Lowe, SP- The Mets have to sign him. Their initial offer was much lower than Lowe wanted, but that is why it was their initial offer. The Mets need another good starter and Lowe is their best option. I think the Phillies should really go after Lowe, this would not only take a good pitcher from a division rival, but really solidify their rotation. I believe the Mets will give into Lowe’s demands of around $16 million per year.

3. Adam Dunn, LF- He hits lots of homeruns and walks a ton, but hits for a low average and strikes out more than Steve Urkel (Corny, I know. It’s all I could come up with at the time). The Nationals want to make a move after losing out on Teixeira. Their fans also believe the team has money to spend and will make a big move. I think the Nats move in and sign Dunn.

4. Milton Bradley, LF- The Cubs are looking for a good offensive outfielder and Bradley fits perfectly. The Cubs have been flirting with every star outfielder this offseason, but i think they now sign Bradley.

5. Ben Sheets, SP- He’s a huge risk, and teams are scared off by his shoulder. But when Sheets is on he’s on. The Rangers aren’t afraid to spend and might as well take a risk on a pitcher that could be good. I predict Sheets goes to the Rangers.

6. Bobby Abreu, RF- I think the market for Abreu will get more serious once Manny gets signed. I believe the Mets would love to sign Abreu and Abreu fits well with them. I predict the Mets sign Abreu, though the Angels will compete for him too.

7. Orlando Hudson, 2B- Everyone loves Hudson. Hudson is hard for me to predict, because he makes sense for a lot of teams but don’t know how they will land him. He makes sense for the Dodgers if they don’t sign Manny, but I believe they will. He makes sense for the Mets, but they can’t find anyone to take Luis Castillo from them. He makes sense for the Nationals if they don’t sign any other big name, but I have them in on Dunn. I am going to say the Mets find some way of trading Castillo and sign Hudson.

8. Oliver Perez, SP- He’s talented and left-handed, which will always get you a job, but very inconsistent. However, Perez is still young and who knows? I have a strong feeling that the Cardinals will sign him.

9. Andy Pettitte, SP- Pettitte still can pitch and is very clutch in the important game which makes him attractive. Pettitte and the Yankees are still at a stalemate, but the Yankees seem prepared to move on since signing Teixeira. The only other team that I believe has  a shot to sign Pettitte is Torre’s Dodgers. I believe in the end, Pettitte takes the Yankee’s one-year $10 million offer.

10. Jason Giambi, 1B- The big G can still hit the long ball, drive in runs, and take the walk. He is fun to have in the clubhouse also. I don’t think there is any question, especially with the Rays signing Burrell, that Giambi goes back to the A’s where there is strong mutual interest. Toronto, however, will be kicking the Giambi tires pretty hard.