Turnpike Series Preview: Phillies vs. Yankees

Finally here it is, the Fall Classic, and what a heavyweight bout this should be. This match-up excites me more than any other World Series I have been alive for. These teams are pretty evenly matched. To break it down some I will go position for position.

Catcher

Carlos Ruiz has played well, Jorge Posada is way better. Jose Molina won’t be making appearances any more.

Edge: Yankees

First Base

Mark Teixeira might be right behind Pujols as the best first baseman in the game. However, this postseason he hasn’t really been his regular season self in the batter’s box. His slick glove has however made up for his lack of offense, saving some big runs and hits. Ryan Howard has been the A-Rod of the NL this postseason. I don’t see him stopping in the World Series, especially at Yankee Stadium.

Edge: Phillies

Second Base

Robinson Cano has played well and made some great plays defensively, but Chase Utley is arguably the best second baseman in the game. Utley needs to be more productive than he has been during these playoffs.

Edge: Phillies (Slightly)

Shortstop

Other than his trash talking, Jimmy Rollins hasn’t done much this post season. Jeter is Jeter and he’s even more than that during the playoffs. No question who is better here.

Edge: Yankees

Third Base

Pedro Feliz plays some stellar defense. Alex Rodriguez is playing out of his mind. Game 7, bottom 9, 2 out, I want A-Rod up over Jeter. Yeah, I said it.

Edge: Yankees (100X Over)

Left Field

Raul Ibanez has had a career year with the Phillies this season. he is a real threat. Johnny Damon has finally started to hit and woke from his postseason slumber. His experience also makes him very dangerous. Damon is more dangerous.

Edge: Yankees

Center Field

Melky Cabrera has been hitting great during the ALCS and has done very well defensively. Shane Victorino is hitting better and is one of Phillies opposing teams fear most.

Edge: Phillies

Right Field

Nick Swisher hasn’t done much this post season. Jayson Werth hasn’t been that stellar either but still better than Swisher.

Edge: Phillies

The DH will only factor in 2-4 games in this series. Yankees get the edge because Matsui is far & beyond better than any bench player for Philadelphia and better than many Phillies starters.

Starting Pitching

Cliff Lee is one of the best aces in the game and will be dominant in the World Series. Pedro Martinez starting in Yankee Stadium is great theater and I feel he will either be old Pedro owned by the Yankees in the playoffs or older Pedro who was so dominant for the Red Sox, chants will be plenty either way. Cole Hammels is a shell of his 08 self and Joe Blanton does nothing for me. Hammels is the key to the Phillies repeating.

The trouble for Lee is that he will be matched up with an equally as dominant ace, former teammate, CC Sabbathia. Andy Pettitte has shown why he has the most wins in post season history. A.J. Burnett needs to contain his Jekel & Hyde performance. Just like Hammels, Burnett’s performance(s) during this World Series could be the key to victory for the Yankees.  The big issue here is the fourth starter. Sabbathia can’t start on short rest without either having Chad Gaudin, who has pitched 1 inning since the playoffs started, start a game or have Pettitte and Burnett go on short rest. Rather than have two pitchers with past injury issues go on short rest, I would probably start Sabbathia on short rest in game 4 and have Gaudin start game 5. This gives Pettitte & Burnett ample rest and let’s Sabbathia start a Game 7 instead of Burnett. Gaudin starting a game is still a very big weakness for the Yankees this series.

The Yankees are in better shape I think because of their front three, the Phillies have only Lee and maybe Martinez. Hammels is the wild card.

Edge: Yankees

Bullpen

Brad Lidge has shown to be reliable this postseason. If I were a Phillies fan, I would still be terrified when this bullpen comes in late against this Yankees lineup. The Yank’s bullpen which has been a strong point all season has shown some weakness this postseason, especially with the bridge to Mariano Rivera. Chamberlain and Hughes have not been as reliable as everyone believed they would be during these playoffs. Rivera is Rivera though and automatically gives the Yankees the edge here no matter what. Though constant 6 out saves should worry Yankee fans. That was his undoing in that epic game 7 in the 2001 World Series.

Edge: Yankees

Manager

Joe Girardi has unquestionably done a fantastic job this year with the Yankees, regardless of some questionable over managing during this year’s ALCS. Charlie Manuel has done this already, Girardi hasn’t, bottom line.

Edge: Phillies

Phillies Key To Success: Cole Hammels- The Phillies need him to be 2008 version.

Yankees Key To Success: A.J. Burnett- With Gaudin possibly getting a start, the Yankees can’t afford to have a shaky performance from Burnett. He will need to work well with Posada, because that security blanket of personal catcher Jose Molina is gone.

Prediction: NYY Over PHI in 7 Games- A little different from Rollins’ prediction.

Do or Die Time For Twins

Tonight is Game 7 for the Twins. They can’t afford to lose this game and drop to three games behind the Tigers with four games to go.  Even if they leave the Tigers series with a split and leave Detroit only two games back, it will be very unlikely they could overtake the Tigers with only three games left in the season.

After two great games in yesterday’s split double header, I believe the Twins need to take the next two games against Detroit and leave tied for the division. From there, the last series of the season favors the Twins more than the Tigers. The Twins will have a 3-game series against the woeful Royals at home, while the Tigers face-off against the White Sox in a 3-game series at home too.

The game tonight will feature Carl Pavano (13-11 4.86 ERA) vs. Eddie Bonine (0-1 4.60 ERA). Who thought Pavano would be counted on for a pivotal 2009 start? Certainly not anybody in New York. Pavano has pitched well this year and very well against Detroit. Bonine has pitched pretty well in his last couple of starts too. I think this match-up favors the Twins, but who knows? Bonine might welcome big game pressure in what will probably be his last start of the 2009 season, no matter who wins the division.

The last match-up of the series features Scott Baker (14-9 4.48 ERA) vs. Nate Robertson (2-2 5.56 ERA). Not a great pitching match-up on either side, and Robertson is just plain awful. A very winnable game for Twins, especially if they have momentum and excitement flowing from a win on Wednesday night.

The Central is in the Twins hands and I believe they can pull through, or at least tie and give a great end of the regular season gift and force a 1-game playoff.

2011 Free Agent Market

MLBTradeRumors.com has a post up today about the potential 2011 MLB free agent market. Obviously depending on what happens this off-season and during next season, the free agent class could change. The position department is kind of weak, but the starting pitching is very interesting.

Among the position players, the 2011 free agent class is highlighted by C Joe Mauer, 1B Carlos Pena and Derek Lee, SS Derek Jeter, 3B Aramis Ramirez (Player Option) and OF Adam Dunn. I doubt Jeter is going anywhere and I see the club options of 1B Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman, SS Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins, and OF Brad Hawpe being picked up.

Closers Huston Street and Mariano Rivera will be available, and Brian Fuentes has a vesting option. Of course there are a lot of relievers on the market as there usually is a decent lot available every year.

The Starting pitchers available is where it gets good. Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Joe Blanton, Ted Lilly, Kevin Millwood, Javier Vasquez, and Jorge De La Rosa. Reds’ pitchers Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo have club options which I think will be declined. Matt Cain (vesting option), Jeff Francis and Chris Young (club options) most likely will be staying with their respective teams.

2011 should be interesting. I can definitely see record breaking contracts for Joe Mauer and possibly Roy Halladay, though not too many years for Halladay.

Pitchin’ Ain’t Easy

Pitcher AJ Burnett's playoff performance could determine Yanks post-season success. (Photo Courtesy: NYDailyNews.com)

We all know that the Yankees are cruising into the playoffs. They will probably win around 101-103 games. The major issue, the one that should concern Yankee fans, is the Yankee’s starting pitching. Many of the 2000’s Yankee teams had great offensive teams but problematic starting pitching, that could be the case this post season. Let’s breakdown the four starters who will be starting in the playoffs:

1. C.C. Sabathia- Unquestionably the ace of the Yankee staff. With 18 wins he is tied for most in the AL. He had a slow start early this year, but down the stretch he has been dominant. There are question marks around Sabathia’s post season success in the past, but I would not worry about that. I see Sabathia being every bit of the ace he has been this season.

2. Andy Pettitte- No doubt Pettitte definitely deserves the number 2 spot with the way he has been pitching since the All-Star break. He has looked like the old Andy and the Yankees could use old reliable Andy in the playoffs. The only issue that has turned that Pettitte into a question mark is the shoulder fatigue issue. The Yankees have to pray that Pettitte will get over this fatigue and be in prime shape for the playoffs. If not, it could be an early exit for the Yankees, again.

3. A.J. Burnett- The Jekel & Hyde of the staff, and the key to the Yankee’s postseason success. Burnett started the season poorly, then pitched amazing, then very poorly for the last two months. If the good Burnett shows up in the playoffs, with his amazing stuff, nobody will be able to touch him. If it’s the more recent Burnett shows up, it could doom the Yanks, even with a dominant Sabbathia and a great Pettitte.

4. Joba Chamberlain- At this point I don’t even believe Joba has earned a spot on the postseason roster. Chamberlain has shown some brilliance this year. But for the last few months he has been just plain awful. What makes it worse is that Chamberlain doesn’t think he has been that bad. If the Yankees get homefield advantage, they will obviously take the longer divisional series so that they only need 3 starters. If they make it to the championship series, then they will need a 4th starter and Girardi has said numerous times that Chamberlain will be it. That is a very scary thought at this point. If Chamberlain doesn’t show drastic improvement in his last couple of starts, I would not commit to Chamberlain as my 4th starter if I were Girardi.

So if I were Girardi this is what I would do:

I would of course make Sabathia my first starter. Next I would make Pettitte the number 2. I know Pettitte will probably pitch in game 3 because he is better on the road and there is a  comfort level of having Pettitte there starting in an elimination game. However, I rather have Pettitte start second because he has been better than Burnett and pitching him second makes him available to pitch in a potential game 5. Who would you feel more comfortable with in game 5, Pettitte or Burnett?

Now if they make it to the CS or World Series, I don’t think I would start Joba in game 4 unless he shows some 2007-esque stuff in his last regular season starts. I would use Sabathia on short rest, it’s not like Sabathia hasn’t done it before. I wouldn’t be most comfortable with this scenario, but what else can you do.

Another scenario is keeping an eye on how pitchers Chad Gaudin, Alfredo Aceves, or even Ian Kennedy do in the finally two weeks. I don’t see Aceves as a real option and Kennedy has just returned from surgery for an aneurysm and has pitched in only a few innings for AAA. I doubt Kennedy could even be stretched out as a starter at this point. Gaudin will probably get a spot as a long man on the postseason roster and has pitched pretty well. The only issue is I don’t really see the Yankees starting Gaudin over Chamberlain in the playoffs, and I wouldn’t have much confidence in him if he did.

If the Yanks have C.C. being C.C., Pettitte not having shoulder issues, Burnett decently effective, they could survive a bad Joba in the playoffs. However, if the later 3 or 2 out of the 4 are ineffective, it could be an early exit for these Yankees.

You Think That Favre Kid Is Any Good?

Congratulations to the Pittsburgh Pirates on 17 consecutive losing seasons. Now the longest streak out of any of the four major North American sports (football, baseball, basketball, hockey. It’s hard to imagine how much failure it takes in the front office of a franchise to be this bad for this long. The last winning Pirates team was during the 1992 season, where they lost in the playoffs to the Atlanta Braves. October 1992 I was in my second month of Kindergarten. I barely remember anything from ‘92, but here are some fun facts from then:

- Teams that won championships since the Pirates last had a winning record:
Baseball- Blue Jays(2), Braves, Yankees(4), Marlins(2),  Diamondbacks, Angels, Red Sox(2), White Sox,    Cardinals,Phillies.
Football- Redskins, Cowboys(3), 49ers, Packers, Broncos(2), Rams, Ravens, Patriots(3), Steelers(2), Colts, Giants.
Hockey-  Penguins(2), Canadiens, Rangers, Devils(3), Avalanche(2), Red Wings(4), Stars, Lightning, Hurricanes,  Ducks.
Basketball- Bulls(5), Rockets(2), Spurs(4), Lakers(4), Pistons, Heat, Celtics.
At least Pittsburgh had 4 championships between the Penguins & Steelers since 1992.

- Red Sox knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is the only active player left from the 1992 Pirates.

Also in ‘92:

- Quarterback Brett Favre made his debut.

-  Bill Clinton is elected President for his 1st term.

-  Silence of The Lambs wins Best Picture during the 64th Academy Awards.

- Singer Miley Cyrus is born.

- John Gotti is convicted.

- Windows 3.1 is released by Microsoft.

- Johnny Carson steps down from the Tonight Show.

- Columbian drug lord Pablo Escobar escapes from prison.

- Dr. Dre releases The Chronic.

- Prince Charles and Princess Diana divorce.

Unfortunately for Pirate fans, this streak doesn’t look close to ending. Hell, in 17 years I might have to do an updated version of this post.

Divisional Series Match-ups Preview

I know there is still roughly 30 games left in the schedule, but it’s fun to look ahead to the playoffs. With very few close races left (NL Wild Card, AL Wild Card & AL Central kind of) it easy to see how the match-ups will play out.

ALDS

Detroit Tigers (AL Cent W) @ New York Yankees (AL East W)

While I’m sure the Yankees and their fans rather see the Tigers in the first round than the Red Sox or Angels, this series can go two ways. It will either be a close hardly fought series or a complete blow out by the Yankees. In a 5-game series having two dominant pitchers is all you need to win, and great pitching seems to always trump great offenses come playoff time. The Tigers have two aces ready to go, Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson. The Yankees have some question marks in their starting rotation. Sabbathia has looked every bit the ace he was signed to be, but he doesn’t have a great playoff record. Burnett seems to lost his way recently. Yankee 90’s dynasty pitcher Andy Pettitte has been incredible in the 2nd half and has more playoff experience than any other starting pitcher on both teams combined, he seems to be the only sure thing. If the Yankee pitchers show up and even provide decent outings while their offensive stays productive, it should be an easy series win for the Yankees. If not, it could be 2006 all over again.

Boston Redsox (AL WC  W) @ Los Angeles Angels (AL West W)

These two teams seem to meet every year in the ALDS. I see this going to the wire and being a 5-game bloodbath, which is always exciting to watch. Both teams have had major starting pitching issues this season. The Angels had the tragic death of Nick Adenhart and numerous injuries to the rotation. The Red Sox, once thought to be very deep pitching wise,  has turned anemic. They dealt with injuries, the failed experiments with John Smotz and Brad Penny, and the recent struggles with staff ace Josh Beckett. To win the Red Sox need to have Beckett straighted out or else it will be a quick exit for the Sox. The Angels staff is now healthy, but they need the other pitchers behind ace John Lackey to step up and pitch as good as they have been lately.  Unfortunately for the Angels, the Red Sox seem to own the Angels come October.

NLDS

The NL match-ups are a little harder to figure out because of the teams still involved in the wild card and the Cardinals and Dodgers being close for best record in the NL. For arguments sake (and because I will do a full preview before the playoffs start) I will go with my predictions for the season. I believe the Cardinals will own best record in the NL and either Colorado or San Francisco with the Wild Card (no disrespect Atlanta and Florida).

SF Giants/ COL Rockies (NL WC W) @ St.Lous Cardinals (NL Cent W)

This should be a short series regardless of the wild card winner. More than any other team the Cardinals have taken most advantage of mid-season acquisitions bolstering their team with the trades of Mark DeRosa, Matt Holliday and the signing of John Smoltz. The Cards have arguably the best 1-2 punch for pitching in the MLB with Adam Wainwright and my NL Cy Young pick, Chris Carpenter. Also, arguably the best 3-4 hitters in MLB with potential NL MVP Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. The Giants are my personal pick to get the Wild Card. The Giants have an almost as good 1-2 pitching punch as the Cards with last year’s Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. The problem lays with the Giants offense, which isn’t very intimidating. Offense might be the key to this series because great pitching performances is almost guaranteed.

The Rockies are a bit more of a balanced team than the Giants, as they have both good pitching and a good offense. The offense might be better than the Cardinals all around, but their pitching is not. The Giants might have the best chance to force this series to 5 games.

Philadelphia Phillies (NL East W) @ Los Angeles Dodgers(NL West W)

This should be a fun series to watch. The Phillies with their pitching acquisitions have almost as good a 1-2 punch as any other rotation in baseball, with their aces Cole Hammels and Cliff Lee. That’s if Hammels has returned to last year’s form after a sub-par beginning of the season. The Phillies lineup is also scary good. The Dodgers have a good rotation and a very productive lineup. I would take the Phillies’ aces over the Dodgers pitchers though. It will be very interesting to see the World Champions battle the media’s 2009 World Series favorite since May. I definitely see this series going to 5 games.

Can’t wait for October.

AL MVP Debate

Nobody seems to know how to exactly define MVP. Many think it should be awarded to the player having the best season on a contending team, making that player most valuable to that team. Some think it should be awarded to the player having the best season regardless of whether that player plays for a contender or not. I certainly understand both sides.

I believe barring an absolute ridiculous year by a player, the award should be given to the best player on a contending team. I obviously don’t get a vote, so it’s all up to the writers to define what MVP really means. Players have won on non-contending teams and have won because they were on contending teams even though other guys had better stats.

This year it seems the argument will once again come up in the AL. The NL MVP is easy to figure out, Cardinal’s superstar first baseman Albert Pujols both has had an incredible season and plays for a contender. The AL is a little more blurry.

I believe the most serious two contenders for the AL MVP is Twin’s Catcher Joe Mauer and Yankee first baseman Mark Teixeira. The biggest deciding factor in the MVP race might be if the Twins make the playoffs.

Mauer plays arguably the toughest position in baseball, catcher. He is posting an incredible .367 batting average, unheard of for a catcher, and a 1.045 OPS.  He also has 152 hits, 26 HRs, 80 RBIs and 52 BBs. If he keeps up this production for the last month, it’s hard to argue with his MVP candiatcy, especially given his position. The biggest problem is the Twins, right now, are 3.5 back of the Central Division leading Tigers, barely above .500 and in position to miss the playoffs. Many have said, “How valuable could Mauer be if his team is about to miss the playoffs.”

On the other side of the MVP argument, Mark Teixeira is having a great year for the the Yankees, who own the best record in baseball. Teixeira is second in the AL in HRs with 32 and first in the AL in RBIs with 101.  Teixeira has more BBs and XBHs than Mauer. Though his AVG is 86 points lower and .OPS 85 points lower than Mauers. The Yankees might not be where they are this year without Teixeira, which makes him an extremely valuable player.  Barring any future trades the Yankees might have made, the Yankees were ready to enter this season as Nick Swisher- Alex Rodriguez as their 3-4 in their lineup. The impact Teixeira has made is very visible.

The debate is an easy one if the Twins don’t make the playoffs, Teixeira should be MVP.  If the Twins somehow make the playoffs, then this race should be neck and neck.

Wild Finish

Its getting close to that time of the year where the Wild Card race gets really fun to watch.  With 4 teams in it for the AL (Red Sox, Rangers, Rays and Mariners) and 5 teams in the NL (Rockies, Giants, Marlins, Braves and Cubs), it should all make for a good September.

The AL will thin out in the next few weeks. The Mariners are barley holding on and in about 2 weeks I will guarantee they are fully out of it. Still don’t understand them trading Washburn.

The Rays don’t have the pitching or luck they had last year, they will hang around but will be a few games out by the end of September.

This leaves the Red Sox and the surprising Rangers as my front runners for the WC. The Rangers sure have the offense and good pitching this year, but I still don’t think it is enough to overtake Boston.

Boston, even with their recent struggles, still have one of the best teams in the league. With a lot of home games left at Fenway and no more west coast trips, the schedule is in their favor. Fenway is the biggest home field advantage in all of American sports. I see the Red Sox in the end claiming the AL WC by 3 games.

My Final AL Wild Card Standings

1. Boston Red Sox

2. Texas Rangers

3. Tampa Bay Rays

4. Seattle Mariners

The more fun Wild Card race to watch in the MLB will be the NL race. There are more evenly matched teams involved and better starting pitching, which I’m a big fan of. I believe all 5 teams will closely be in the race until the end of the season. It will be a 5-way bloodbath, good enough for a WWE pay-per-view. Hopefully so close that there could be some one game playoffs, which are my favorite.

The Cubs have been messing around all season, but I believe they will really start hitting their stride at the end of the summer. Is there really any better time to get hot? I don’t understand how the Marlins are still in it, they have some good pitching, but besides Hanley Ramirez, no offense at all. They will be the first team out of it.

The Braves are a fun team, they have one of the best 5-man rotations in the majors and some pretty decent offense. The Braves will be in it to the end because of their pitching.

The Rockies have surprised everyone again this season. Everyone, including myself, thought they would sell off anyone good on this team by the trading deadline. The Rockies front office, I think, were also surprised by how competitive the Rox have been. Would they have really traded Holliday if they thought they had a chance to go to the World Series? The Rockies will be there at the end also because of the front end of their rotation with Cook, Jimenez and Marquis and a very good offense.

Though the team I think will pull it off is the Giants. They have the best 1-2 punch in their starting rotation with Lincecum and Cain and if their offense can stay productive enough I think they will win the WC.

My Final NL Wild Card Standings

1. San Francisco Giants*

1.Atlanta Braves*

1. Colorado Rockies*

4. Chicago Cubs

5. Florida Marlins

*Indicates Tie

That’s right I’m predicting a 3-way tie in the NL Wild Card race with the Giants, Rockies and Braves. Should be a wild September with the Giants pulling through with the WC.

Random Thoughts

I’m back after having to entertain some friends who visited from out of state. Sorry I couldn’t blog about the trading deadline, which I originally planned to do. Now onto some random thoughts about baseball.

• I think it was a mistake for the Blue Jays not to trade ace Roy Halladay, I don’t think they could of gotten a better package of prospects than they would have at the trading deadline.

• The bullpen is the only place I can see John Smoltz going. He should not start again, he’s a shell of his former self.

• Where is all that talk about the Red Sox pitching depth. I saw this hype as overblown months ago. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester are the only good pitchers on that team.

• The Mets injury list is very tragic. However, I still don’t believe a fully healthy Mets team all season would have made the playoffs. The only guys I would want on my major league team on that DL is Jose Reyes & Carlos Beltran.

• The Rangers are a good team, but, they don’t have enough to overtake the Angels in the West or the AL East teams for the Wild Card.

• I’m going to say the Giants pull out the with the Wild Card in the NL. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are the best 1-2 punch in the game.

• I believe the Tigers have the best rotation in the game. That is if Jarrod Wasburn can pitch in Detroit like he did in Seattle.

• I get that because the Yankees and Dodgers have the best record in their respective leagues and the Torre spin would make a great story, but all the Yankee-Dodger World Series talk is very premature, even if they both finish with the best record in their leagues. That is mostly because the teams with the best records rarley face each other in the World Series in the current playoff system. The last time the teams with the best record in the AL & NL met in the series was in the 1999 World Series with the 98-64 Yankees sweeping the 103-59 Atlanta Braves.

First Half Awards: NL

With it being a little more than the mid-point for the 2009 baseball season, it’s time for my annual first half awards. We start today with the NL.

MVP: Albert Pujols (STL)- I don’t think there is any surprise here. Pujols has a legitmate shot at the triple crown this year. If he was surrounded by a better lineup, it’s scary to think of the better numbers he might put up.

Cy Young: Dan Haren (ARI)- Another no doubter. He is the best pitcher in all of baseball this season.

Reliever of the Year: Francisco Rodriguez (NYM)- One of the only sure things on the Mets, K-Rod has successfully taken his dominant stuff to the National League. Now, if he just stopped making a fool out of himself with his ridiculous celebrations after saving a game, everything would be perfect.

Rookie of The Year: Cody Rasmus (STL)- This soon to be 23-year old center fielder is coming along very nicely for the Cardinals.

Comeback Player of The Year: Todd Helton (COL)- After a shortned 2008 season, Helton is back to his old self mashing the ball. He is two games away from matching the number of games he played last season.

Manager of The Year: Bruce Bochy (SF)- Coming into the season I knew the Giants pitching would be good, but I didn’t think the Giants had enough in other areas to be competitive. I was wrong as the Giants lead the Wild Card race and are competitive in a pretty tough division this year. Have to give Bochy credit, especially with the offense he has.