Santana and The Mets

It was blatantly obvious before the season started, the Mets rotation is bad. Minus of course the masterful left-hander Johan Santana. Santana is 2-1 with a 0.46 ERA, while the rest of the rotation is 3-5 with a 7.67 ERA. Your looking real good Wilpons for choosing to be cheap and skip out on Derek Lowe for the inconsistent Oliver Perez.

As awful as Mike Pelfrey has looked so far with his team high 8.10 ERA, I believe he will get better and bring that average way down. However, it is not good that Pelfrey is the number 2 starter on the team.

Mets have to prayer hard that John Maine also greatly improves along with Pelfrey or else the Mets are looking at fourth place all season long.

I won’t hide my disdain for Oliver Perez. He is terrible and his good starts are greatly outweighed by his horrible ones. He is vastly overpaid and I wouldn’t want him as the fifth starter on my team.

The fifth starter spot on this team is a joke.

I know it’s still very early in the season, but I don’t see how it will get better for the Mets starters. The trend will continue of Santana having a Cy-Young caliber year and the rest of the rotation battling to have an ERA under 5.00. That’s a very serious issue for a team dreaming of going deep in the playoffs and erasing the chokes of the past two seasons.

The Mets might have to make two big trades to right the ship, one for a front end starter and another for a solid back end starter.

The New Yankee Stadium Homer Problem

While everybody is trying to come up with why so many home runs have been hit in 6 games (2 exhibition) at the new Yankee Stadium, Mike Axisa of  River Ave. Blues has a great post about one theory.

They basically site a AccuWeather article that says it’s the shape of the seats in the stadium that can be the cause. But the good news they offer is that it may only last for the duration of the spring and in the late fall and not the summer.

Mike also says it best with this quote about how the media and Yankee haters will react to whatever happens in the new Stadium with homeruns,

Of course the cat’s already out of the bag, so every time a homer is hit in The Stadium, it’s  because it’s a bandbox. A-Rod comes back in May and hits 35 homers the rest of the way to lead the Yanks to the postseason? It’s because he plays in a bandbox. Jorge Posada has a bounceback year and hits 23 homers? Bandbox. Austin Jackson hits a homer in his first game? Bandbox. David Ortiz hits two homers off a long reliever? He’s healthy and back in ‘03-’07 form.You know how it goes.

I still think there might be something to the “MLB juiced up the balls for attendance purposes” theory. I also believe bad pitching contributed most for the homeruns. Whatever the reason, we’ll see what happens as the season continues.

Thoughts…..

Sorry for the lack of posts, been really busy the last two weeks. Here are some early thoughts about the first two weeks of the season.

- The Marlins fast 10-1 start is no fluke. They probably won’t finish in second place, let alone first, but they are a very good team.

- Have to feel for the Blue Jay’s pitching staff. Three of their starters are on the disabled list. But they are off to a good start somehow.

- The only thing that will be more embarrassing for the Yankees than losing 22- 4 to the Indians and having a 14-run inning put up against them, would be losing to Carl “The DL” Pavano this afternoon.

- Chien-Ming Wang is killing my fantasy team.

- I guess MLB won’t be shattering attendance numbers like they have been in previous seasons. The empty seats in games this year is just straight embarrassing.

-There is a slight suspicion that MLB might have juiced some balls this year to increase attendance in these tough times.

- The WBC looks like it has once again screwed with a lot of players who participated.

Going to enjoy the afternoon, maybe play some baseball after watching the Yankee- Indians game at 1 p.m. There is finally warm weather in the northeast.

Nick Adenhart 1986-2009

Angels pitcher Nick Adenhart was killed in a traffic accident early this morning when a driver of a mini van blew a red light and hit two cars.

The 22-year old Adenhart pitched six scoreless innings last night against Oakland. My prayers and condolences go out to Adenhart’s family and friends.

“The Montreal Expos: Five Years Later”

Eric Rosenhek, a journalist for TheGoodPoint.com, wrote an intersting story about how Montreal is dealing with the loss of the Expos five years later. It’s a good read, I suggest you guys check it out.

AL Award Predictions

MVP: 1B Mark Teixiera (NYY)

Cy Young: LHP Jon Lester (BOS)

Rookie of The Year: C Matt Wieters (BAL)

Batting Title: 2B Dustin Pedroia (BOS)

Rolaids Relief Man of The Year: RHP Mariano Rivera (NYY)

Manager of The Year: Trey Hillman (KC)

Comeback Player of The Year: DH/1B Travis Hafner (CLE)

Last year, the only award prediction I got right was manager of the year with the Ray’s Joe Maddon. Hopefully I’ll do better this year. I’m fairly confident with my AL picks, more than my NL picks.

NL Award Predictions

MVP: LF Manny Ramirez (LAD)

Cy Young: LHP Johan Santana (NYM)

Rookie of The Year: OF Colby Rasmus (STL)

Batting Title: 3B Chipper Jones (ATL)

Rolaids Relief Man of The Year: RHP Francisco Rodriguez (NYM)

Manager of The Year: Bobby Cox (ATL)

Comeback Player of the Year: C Ivan Rodriguez (HOU)

I don’t think anyone will come close to Manny Ramirez for MVP in the NL, unless the Marlins make a real run, then maybe Hanley Ramirez could be MVP. Maybe this year Johan Santana won’t have to worry about the bullpen blowing games for him and win that NL Cy Young I said he would win the last two seasons.

AL West Preview

The west isn’t very strong this season. Don’t look for the west to be dominated just by the Angels again, the A’s will play a role.

1. Los Angeles Angels- This team still looks like the best team in the west, but they are hurt by free agent departures and injuries. They are a weaker team than last year’s version.

 Having ace John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar on the DL to start the season isn’t a great way to start. The Angels need them to be healthy all year to win the division. Joe Saunders is very good, but he isn’t an ace. When everyone else comes back this rotation could be very strong.

This team needed offense and while Bobby Abreu is a nice addition, this team needed more, such as a Manny Ramirez. Vlad Guerrero and Torii Hunter are very good, but can they shoulder all the offense again this season?

Francisco Rodriguez is hard to replace as closer. Brian Fuentes is a nice addition, but he isn’t K-Rod. The rest of the bullpen is very solid as usual.

Biggest ?: Starting Rotation Health-This could balloon into a much larger issue.

Player To Watch: SP John Lackey- The Angels need him to make the playoffs.

2. Oakland A’s- The A’s must smell blood in the water, they could win this weakened divisions with all their improvements.

The additions of Jason Giambi, Matt Holliday and Orlando Cabrera means the A’s are serious about contending this season. It will be interesting to see how Holliday hits away from Coors. The A’s need third baseman Eric Chavez to stay healthy and provide some extra offense.

Like the Angels, The A’s number 1 is also injured to start the season. Justin Duchscherer is vital for the A’s success this year, because after him the rotation is very young and unproven. But what do I know? GM Billy Beane is a genius when acquiring and developing young pitchers.

With Huston Street gone, youngster Brad Ziegler will be the new closer, he has some good stuff. The addition of veteran righty Russ Springer was a good move to give that bullpen some experience.  

Biggest ?: Is There Enough Pitching?-Billy Beane has made us look stupid before questioning their pitchers.

Player To Watch: LF Matt Holliday-I want to see how good Holliday can hit away from Coors, I’m not sure it’s that good. Billy Beane is taking a chance, because if the A’s don’t contend I’m sure they will trade Holliday, but if his number fall, the A’s will receive less than what they got him for.

3. Texas Rangers- They have some good young offensive players and powerful veteran offensive players, but still no pitching.

The rotation is garbage except for Brandon McCarthy, who the Rangers are hoping he emerges as a star soon.

The offense is pretty powerful with Micheal Young, Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler.  Rookie Elvis Andrus is supposed to be the next great shortstop. There are some other youngsters who will continue to make this a lethal offense.

Closer Frank Francisco is the best pitcher on the team. The rest of the bullpen is bad.

Biggest ?: Pitching- The Rangers need some bad.

Player To Watch: CF Josh Hamilton- Can he repeat last year’s success?

4. Seattle Mariners-  Adding Ken Griffey Jr. back for nostalgia purposes probably is the only thing that will bring fans to the park to watch the M’s.

Starting pitcher Felix Hernandez will have a special year and if Erik Bedard can stay healthy, him and Hernandez would be a great 1-2 punch. After them the rotation is horrible, Carlos Silva and Jarrod Washburn just aren’t good.

Jose Lopez, Adrian Beltre and Ichiro, when back from the DL, will lead this offense. After those three there isn’t anybody else. Griffey is a nice story and everything, but he’s not good anymore.

Brandon Morrow is a decent closer, but the rest of the bullpen is bad.

Biggest ?: Will Ichiro be Traded?- It might come to that.

Player To Watch: SP Felix Hernandez- King Felix will have a monster year.

AL Central Preview

The central isn’t the best division in baseball, nor does it contain the best teams. But it might be one of the deepest, as there is no real bad team here. There are a few teams that could win the division. I’m going with :

1. Minnesota Twins-The Twins are a young team that will have a good year. Look for Francisco Liriano to have a break out year. I like the youngsters Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins, they will have good years and help solidify the rotation. Nick Blackburn is also a young starter who fills out the back of this rotation well. I just wish the Twins acquired a veteran starter to give some experience to it and help lead a young team to a division title.

The offense is iffy, but also young. they will need to come into their own this season. First baseman Justin Morneau is the center piece to this offense and is one the best players in the league. The Twins are hurt by Joe Mauer, the best catcher in the game, being put on the DL to start the season. Also, expect a major breakout year by young center fielder Carlos Gomez. If newly signed third baseman, Joe Crede, can stay healthy, he will add some good pop to this offense.

The bullpen is lead by amazing closer Joe Nathan, who has had only one season since coming to the Twins in 2004 with an ERA over 2.00, it was in 2005 with a 2.70 ERA. The rest of the bullpen is decent with relievers Jesse Crain and Craig Breslow.

Biggest ?: Where Is The Veteran leadership On The Pitching Staff?- The Twins might have to acquire one via trade to have a serious playoff push.

Player To Watch: SP Francisco Liriano-He’s had some injury issues and problems with the Twin’s front office. But, Liriano needs to be very effective if the Twins are to win the division.

2. Cleveland Indians- This team is much improved this year and will be close to the top of the division all year.

Cy Young winner, Cliff Lee, is the ace of this rotation, though I have some reservations about him being a true ace. Fausto Carmona needs to revert to 2007 form in order for the Indians to be real contenders. It’s scary to see Carl Pavano as third on the Indian’s depth chart, as I finish this sentence Pavano has already injured himself.

The offense is capable of being very good. Grady Sizemore is a 5-tool player who is quickly establishing himself as the best center fielder in the game, just has to get that average up. I also really like right fielder Shin-Soo Choo, who I think will have a very productive year. The Indian’s need catcher Victor Martinez and designated hitter Travis Hafner to stay healthy all year and have come back seasons. Mark DeRosa was a great pick-up and he can play many positions while adding a lot to the offense.

The Indians finally have a closer in Kerry Wood, which helps them tremondously.  The rest of the bullpen is pretty decent.

Biggest ?: Health-Can Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez stay healthy? The Indians need them to.

Player To Watch: SP Fausto Carmona- the Indians need him to be a true number two starter behind Cliff Lee.

3. Kansas City Royals- Will be one of the most improved teams this season.

I like the front end of the rotation. Gil Meche is a solid reliable starter and I’m expecting a break out Cy Young caliber year from Zack Geinke. Third starter Kyle Davies should have a very good season too.

The offense is improved with the additions of slugging first baseman Mike Jacobs and center fielder Coco Crisp. corner outfielders David DeJesus and Jose Guillen are major parts for this offense. Youngster third baseman Alex Gordon will have a great year, establishing himself as one of the best third baseman in the league.

Joakim Soria is very effective in the closing spot, the 9th inning shouldn’t be a worry all year in Kansas City. What is worrying is the money they gave inconsistant Kyle Farnsworth. Yikes. Though, adding Juan Cruz at a discount kind of makes up for it, he should be the set-up man.

Biggest ?: Is The Rotation Deep Enough?- They might have to acquire another pitcher if they are competitive this year.

Player To Watch: 3B Alex Gordon- A future star and the future face of the Royals.

4. Chicago White Sox-After making the playoffs last season, it looks like this team may not be deep enough to finish higher than fourth.

The rotation is pretty good with Mark Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd in the top three spots. I don’t know how Jose Contreras and Bartolo Colon will do this year, though they did have good springs.

Outfielders Carlos Quentin and Jermaine Dye, and 39-year old DH Jim Thomes lead this offense. The White Sox need a productive comeback year from Paul Konerko to really solidify this offense.

The bullpen is very good with closer Bobby Jenks and veteran relievers Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink.

Biggest ?: Paul Konerko- The Sox need Konerko to be the first baseman he was two seasons ago.

Player To Watch: SP John Danks- This kid should rise to the ace of this staff real soon.

5. Detroit Tigers- After high hopes at the start of last season they were quickly dashed by a losing season. The Tigers will once again dwell in the cellar. The economy which is especially bad in Detroit, means less revenue and maybe the need to trade players to cut payroll.

Justin Verlanderneeds to rebound and have an ace season. The rest of the rotation is bad, with the exception of Armando Galarraga who is a good pitcher.

The offense is still good. Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez are great sluggers who lead the offense. Curtis Granderson and Placido Polanco are very good hitters. Still not sure why the Tigers would eat $14 million and cut Gary Sheffield, he hasn’t played good, but $14 million is a lot of money.

The bullpen is just plain bad. The Tigers need a healthy Joel Zumaya back.

Biggest ?: How Low Will Attendence Be?-With the bad economy, all abseball attendence will suffer. But it might be the worst in Detroit, which can lead to trades for salary dumps.

Player To Watch: 3B Miguel Cabrera-He is still in the top 5 of best hitters in MLB.

AL East Preview

The AL East is by far to toughest division in baseball. I don’t expect either the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays to be more than four games apart from each other. The wild card winner is certainly in this division.

1. New York Yankees- Once again the Yankees are the best team on paper, but baseball isn’t played on paper. The one thing the 2009 Yankees have that in the last few years they didn’t have is deep starting pitching. The rotation of C.C. Sabathia, Chien-Ming Wang, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain is the best rotation since the Yankees last made the World Series in 2003, if not better. Joba is a fake fifth starter, since he would be most teams #2 starter, but is at number five to control his innings. If the staff can stay healthy, and that is a big if especially with Burnett, the Yankees should win around 100 games no problem. Waiting in the sixth spot in case someone gets hurt is Phil Hughes, who is ready to make an impact.

The offense also has some question marks. If the starters are healthy, the Yankees have will have no issues. Jorge Posada needs to catch around 100 games and be the good hitter he usually is. The Yankees also need Alex Rodriguez to come back from his hip injury and be his usual self and for Robinson Cano to improve over last years disappointing season. A lot will be riding on newly signed first baseman Mark Teixeira, how he can handle that pressure is vital for the Yankees success. There is some age on this offense, for the Yankees sake it can’t show.

The bullpen was the strongest point for last years Yankee team. The best closer in the game, Mariano Rivera, shows no sign of slowing down while the rest of the bullpen shows the pitching depth in the Yankee’s farm system, if someone fails, there is plenty of arms to bring up.

Overall, there are many question marks on this team, but it gets blown out of proportion because it’s the Yankees, they don’t have anymore or less question marks than the other 29 teams.

Biggest ?: Health- Matsui, A-Rod, Posada, Wang, Burnett, there is a lot of concern here.

Player To Watch: C Jorge Posada- The Yankees offensive production could depend on Posada’s bat.

2. Boston Red Sox- If the Red Sox do lose the division to the Yankees it will only be by 1 or 2 games.

Okay, I was wrong when I said at last year’s preview when I said that Jon Lester is at best a number three starter in the American League, he has ace stuff. The rotation is deep, but not as good as the Yankees. Josh Beckett is regressing and Tim Wakefield isn’t that good. Daisuke Matsuzaka is really good. I believe Brad Penny will be out by June, replaced by Clay Bucholz or John Smoltz when he’s ready to return. A lot can be riding on Smoltz’s impact on the Red Sox.

The offense is also very good on this team. MVP Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Jason Bay are all scary hitters. DH David Ortiz still strikes fear, but he showed he’s not the same without Manny Ramirez. J.D Drew and Mike Lowell have serious health issues and the Red Sox need one of them to be very productive to keep up with the Yankees offense. Jed Lowrie will emerge as very good SS and will be a fixture there.

The bullpen was kind of shaky last season outside of closer Jonathon Papelbon and set-up man Hideki Okajima. The addition of Takashi Saito deepens the bullpen.

Biggest ?: Will The Gamble of Signing Brad Penny and John Smoltz Pay Off?- If it doesn’t it doesn’t cost the Red Sox much.

Player To Watch: SP John Smoltz- If Smoltz comes back strong, I would not want to face the Red Sox in the first round of the playoffs.

3. Tampa Bay Rays-Two reasons why I don’t think the Rays will finish in front of either the Yankees or Red Sox:

1. There is actually expectations now on this young team.

2.Last season, besides a 7-game losing streak going into the All-Star Break, there was no set backs or injuries for this team. i don’t think they will be that lucky this year.

With that said, I do think they will win 90 games.

James Shields, Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza is a young three-headed pitching monster for this rotation. They are very good, and will keep getting scarier each season, but they aren’t the best fron three in the league. Andy Sonnastine is solid at 4 or 5, but I think the Rays will regret not having David Price start the season on the 25-man roster.

It’s kind of amazing the 2008 AL champion Rays didn’t have one starter hit .300, the highest average belonged to catcher Dioner Navarro with a .295 average. However, third baseman Evan Longoria will definitely change that. This team is good at the small ball, but has some pop with newly acquired DH Pat Burrell and 1B Carlos Pena. I’m still not very impressed with their other offensive players (minus Carl Crawford), but some are pretty good.

The bullpen is very solid, mostly in middle relief, especially with the additions of lwfty Brian Shouse and righty Joe Nelson. I’m not sold on closer Troy Percival being healthy and effective all season.

Biggest ?: Can The Rays Repeat 2008’s Success?- I don’t think so, but the talent is there.

Player To Watch: SP David Price- The last pitcher who had as much hype and anticipation surrounding him was the Yankees Joba Chamberlain. It should be interesting to see Price pitch when he gets called up around June.

4. Toronto Blue Jays- This year don’t expect the Blue Jays to finish with around 85 wins as they have the past few seasons, this team seems to be looking to compete in 2010 not 2009.

The front end of the rotation is hurt by the absences of Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan and the departure of A.J. Burnett to division rival Yankees. Roy Halladay will be his usual Cy Young worthy self at the top of the rotation, though there are rumors he could be traded at the deadline. Jesse Litsch is solid at number 2. After that you can see why the injuries have really hurt this rotation.

The Blue Jay’s offense is counting on center fielder Vernon Wells to have a much more productive season and for right fielder Alex Rios to have a big year too. The Jays are also counting on rookie right fielder Travis Snider to have a breakout year, as well as the young outfielder/DH Adam Lind. If third baseman Scott Rolen can stay healthy, that will be a huge help for the offense.

The bullpen is pretty young and very good, led by lefty closer B.J. Ryan and set-up man Scott Downs.

Biggest ?: Starting Pitching- How bad will spots 3-5 hurt the Jays and if they Jays really struggle because of their pitching will they trade ace Roy Halladay.

Player To Watch: SP Roy Halladay- He is an amazing pitcher and underrated in history, even though he is signed through 2010 he could be somewhere other than Toronto by mid-summer.

5. Baltimore Orioles- This franchise is finally taking the right steps in the rebuilding process, though they are still a few years away from being competitive.

The pitching on this team is bad. Jermey Guthrie is a good pitcher, but shouldn’t be higher than a third starter on any depth chart. Koji Uehara is a 34-year old pitcher who has no experience in America. The rest of the rotation is really bad, Mark Hendrickson and Adam Eaton shouldn’t be starters for any team in the MLB.

The offense is good on this team, the veterans Melvin Mora, Aubrey Huff, Brian Roberts are very good. The Youngsters Nick Markakis and Adam Jones are players you build teams around. Super utility man, Ty Wigginton, was also a very good signing, he is good enough to start. And everyone can’t wait for super kid catcher Matt Wieters to come up, excited to see what all the hype is about.

The bullpen isn’t horrible, but isn’t good either. Having relievers George Sherril and Chris Ray pitching at the end of games is what you expect from a last place team.

Biggest ?: What Veterens Will Be Traded During The Season?- I’m going to say 2B Brian Roberts is the first to go.

Player To Watch: C Matt Wieters- This kid is supposed to be amazing, so he should be worth watching.