Slow Slow January

Baseball news has been slow since my last post. Not much going on except arbitration, which MLB Trade Rumors does a great job covering.

Free Agents seem to be waiting for the economy to drastically improve soon to sign with teams. It will be interesting to see what the remaining free agents sign for.

Some headlines of the day:

• Second Baseman Jeff Kent is calling it quits after 17 seasons.
• SI.com’s Ted Keith talks about directionless free agent pitcher Ben Sheets and his off season of discontent.
• Future Hall of Fame catcher Brad Ausmus has signed with the Dodgers to be their back-up catcher.
• ESPN’s Keith Law lists the Texas Rangers as #1 in his organizational rankings (Subscription to Insider required to read past top 10 teams).
• The Phillies have retained right fielder Jayson Werth with a 2-year deal worth $10 million.
• Injuries will prevent pitcher Rich Harden from pitching for Canada in the WBC, which is a huge blow to Canada.
• Fox Sport’s Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the New York Mets and New York Yankees have emerged as the favorites to sign free agent pitcher Freddy Garcia, makes little sense for the Yankees to sign him, unless it’s a minor league deal.
• The Texas Rangers are close to signing veteran shortstop Omar Vizquel.

What Will The Mets Do?

The Mets should sign Ben Sheets not Oliver Perez.

Now that the Braves have snatched free agent pitcher Derek Lowe away from the Mets, what will the Mets do the remainder of the off-season? GM Omar Minaya seems fixed on signing free agent lefty Oliver Perez now, or take  a longer look at Ben Sheets. I feel the later would be a better choice if the Mets want to make the playoffs in 2009. Sheets has ace stuff and if he’s healthy the Mets could have a great 1-2 in the rotation. The issue is the “if,” Sheets has serious health concerns with his shoulder. Perez would be a safer choice to sign, but I don’t believe his addition is enough to have a great rotation.

The other pitchers that round out the rotation are Santana, Maine, Pelfrey, and Redding. Santana will be Santana, though he isn’t the same pitcher he was 3 seasons ago. Maine and Pelfrey are good starters, Maine is a good #3 starter and Pelfrey is still young and needs more experience. Redding is an average starter and decent as a #5. There is no real #2 starter on this team, and Perez is definitely not one, though he has talent.

The Mets to contend in the revamped NL East need to make power moves.  Signing Oliver Perez & Tim Redding seem only enough to make the Mets a third place team. Though the Mets have improved their bullpen with Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz, it’s not enough. The Braves have a much improved rotation and at this point seem to be the second place team in the east, with the world champion Phillies in first, and watch out for the Marlins, who I believe will be a good team this season.

The Mets should take a shot on Sheets. They should sign Manny Ramirez or at the very least Bobby Abreu, they need a outfielder and a bat, currently the Mets’ outfield has the look of a rebuilding team’s outfield not a contenders.

If all the Mets do is sign Perez, it will be a long season for Mets fans.

Braves Sign Lowe

The Atlanta Braves have reportedly signed free agent pitcher Derek Lowe to a 4-year contract worth about $60 million. This is a great move for Atlanta which helps solidify their rotation. The off-season acquisitions of Javier Vazquez, Japanese pitcher Kenshin Kawakami, and Derek Lowe replace the departures of John Smoltz, Mike Hampton, possible departure of free agent Tom Glavine, and the injured Tim Hudson who will likely miss most of the 2009 season.

The Braves rotation currently stands at Javier Vazquez, Derek Lowe, soon to be 23-year old Jair Jurrjens, Kenshin Kawakami, and probably one of the talented young arms in the Braves farm system. Not a bad rotation, certainly one that can keep up with the Mets and the Phillies in the NL East.

The Braves not only added a reliable good pitcher in Lowe, but also took him away from the Mets, who viewed Lowe as their top target to sign after the addition of closer Francisco Rodriguez.  The Mets will now be forced (even though Mets’ GM Omar Minaya preferred Oliver Perez to Lowe) to sign lefty Oliver Perez or take a chance on free agent pitcher Ben Sheets.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Braves are also exploring a trade with the Yankees for either Xavier Nady or Nick Swisher, who the Mets are also interested in.

Patch Work

Below is the new Yankee Stadium patch the Yankees will wear for the 2009 season.

Meanwhile, across the river in Queens, the Mets will also be wearing a patch to commemorate the opening of their stadium, Citi Field. A very, very ugly patch at that.

What To Do With The Yankee’s Logjam?

The Yankees shouldn't be in a hurry to trade Xavier Nady (above) and Nick Swisher

The Yankees are looking to deal either Nick Swisher or Xavier Nady to relieve the logjam in the outfield. Obviously, the perfect scenario would be someone taking Hideki Matsui off the Yankee’s hands, but that’s not happening.

I believe that a trade shouldn’t be made, at least not yet. There questions with the outfield. Matsui hasn’t been healthy the last two seasons. Whats to say that he won’t injure those knees again? Johnny Damon is another year older and he could also suffer an injury this year. Also what if either Swisher or Nady don’t work out. Swisher didn’t have a good season last year and Nady has only been a full time player for a short time and had a career year last season, what if he reverts back to a platoon player?

Whats the harm keeping both for at least through spring training? Injuries could occur on the Yankees or on other teams during spring training, which would only increase the trade value of Swisher/Nady. If everyone is healthy “worst case” scenario (or best case) you have a bat on the bench with some pop, which the Yankees have been lacking on their bench since the days of Ruben Sierra. Both players have been bench players before, especially Nady.

I believe it would be a mistake to trade either Nady/Swisher before the end of spring training. I would even wait until further into the season. Time can only be a benefit to the Yankees.

Best Remaining Free Agent Roster

Here is my 25-man roster of available free agents. I chose to have  12 pitchers, and 13 position players with no DH. My backups aren’t players who I don’t think could start, but just the next best available free agent at their position.

Catcher: Jason Varitek

First Base: Adam Dunn (Can play first, but mostly a left fielder)

Second Base: Orlando Hudson

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera

Third Base: Ty Wigginton

Left Field: Manny Ramirez

Center Field: Gabe Kapler

Right Field: Bobby Abreu

Starting Pitcher: Derek Lowe (RHP)

Starting Pitcher: Ben Sheets (RHP)

Starting Pitcher: Oliver Perez (LHP)

Starting Pitcher: Andy Pettitte (LHP)

Starting Pitcher: Randy Wolf (LHP)

Relief Pitcher: Juan Cruz (RHP)

Relief Pitcher: Will Ohman (LHP)

Relief Pitcher: Dennys Reyes (LHP)

Relief Pitcher: Joe Beimel (LHP)

Relief Pitcher: Brian Shouse (LHP)

Relief Pitcher: Russ Springer (RHP)

Relief Pitcher: Brandon Lyon (RHP)

Backup Catcher: Ivan Rodriguez

Backup Middle Infielder: David Eckstein

Backup Corner Infielder: Joe Crede

Backup Outfielder: Garret Anderson

Backup Outfielder: Eric Hinske

Giant Favorite

Bengie Molina led the Giants offense in 2008 with 16 homeruns.

I have been hearing a lot lately that the San Francisco Giants could be the favorite in the weak NL West. They added Randy Johnson, who will be  a great third starter. Their pitching is no doubt deep, but the larger issue is their anemic offense.

Last season one player only finished with an above .300 average, Randy Winn with .306, and the most homeruns on the team belonged to catcher Bengie Molina with 16.

The Giants adding shortstop Edgar Renteria does help the offense, but more needs to be done to make the Giants have a good enough lineup to be a favorite in the NL West.

The Giants are flirting with free agent slugger Manny Ramirez, but how serious are the Giants? Is the interest just to drive up the price for the Dodgers?

The Giant’s moves of Randy Johnson and Edgar Renteria give me the impression that the Giants want to win now.

They should go all out in signing Ramirez. The Giants signing Ramirez adds a huge bat to the lineup and takes away a huge bat from a division rival. The baseball analysts are right in the opinion that Ramirez is a division changer. In 2008 Ramirez single handily slugged the Dodgers to the postseason. Ramirez would immediately make the Giants a threat in the division.

If the Giants lose out on Ramirez they could spend that $23 million reserved for Manny on other free agents that would bolster the offense. They could sign free agent 2B Orlando Hudson and either Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu to play the outfield. Hudson is an immediate second base upgrade to whoever the Giants have. Dunn gives the Giants the homeruns they have been desperately lacking and the walks. Abreu gets in the runs and has a high on base percentage. Abreu and Dunn could come cheap after the recent affordable signings of Jason Giambi, Milton Bradley and Pat Burrell. I think Dunn would fit best for his pop and his walks.

Regardless with whatever the Giants do, the team to beat in the NL West, I think, will be the Arizona Diamondbacks not the Giants.

Hot Stove: Where Will They Go?

Below, I will rank  the top 10 remaining free agents and predict where they will go.

1. Manny Ramirez, LF- He’s going back to the Dodgers. The Dodgers need Manny to compete and they can’t afford the rival Giants to sign him. It looked for a while that the Dodgers would wait for Manny to crawl back to them, because of the lack of Manny interest. But teams are now looking at Manny, so Manny and the Dodgers will meet somewhere in the middle. I believe the biggest threat to the Dodgers would be if the Mets get interested, which for some reason they aren’t.

2.  Derek Lowe, SP- The Mets have to sign him. Their initial offer was much lower than Lowe wanted, but that is why it was their initial offer. The Mets need another good starter and Lowe is their best option. I think the Phillies should really go after Lowe, this would not only take a good pitcher from a division rival, but really solidify their rotation. I believe the Mets will give into Lowe’s demands of around $16 million per year.

3. Adam Dunn, LF- He hits lots of homeruns and walks a ton, but hits for a low average and strikes out more than Steve Urkel (Corny, I know. It’s all I could come up with at the time). The Nationals want to make a move after losing out on Teixeira. Their fans also believe the team has money to spend and will make a big move. I think the Nats move in and sign Dunn.

4. Milton Bradley, LF- The Cubs are looking for a good offensive outfielder and Bradley fits perfectly. The Cubs have been flirting with every star outfielder this offseason, but i think they now sign Bradley.

5. Ben Sheets, SP- He’s a huge risk, and teams are scared off by his shoulder. But when Sheets is on he’s on. The Rangers aren’t afraid to spend and might as well take a risk on a pitcher that could be good. I predict Sheets goes to the Rangers.

6. Bobby Abreu, RF- I think the market for Abreu will get more serious once Manny gets signed. I believe the Mets would love to sign Abreu and Abreu fits well with them. I predict the Mets sign Abreu, though the Angels will compete for him too.

7. Orlando Hudson, 2B- Everyone loves Hudson. Hudson is hard for me to predict, because he makes sense for a lot of teams but don’t know how they will land him. He makes sense for the Dodgers if they don’t sign Manny, but I believe they will. He makes sense for the Mets, but they can’t find anyone to take Luis Castillo from them. He makes sense for the Nationals if they don’t sign any other big name, but I have them in on Dunn. I am going to say the Mets find some way of trading Castillo and sign Hudson.

8. Oliver Perez, SP- He’s talented and left-handed, which will always get you a job, but very inconsistent. However, Perez is still young and who knows? I have a strong feeling that the Cardinals will sign him.

9. Andy Pettitte, SP- Pettitte still can pitch and is very clutch in the important game which makes him attractive. Pettitte and the Yankees are still at a stalemate, but the Yankees seem prepared to move on since signing Teixeira. The only other team that I believe has  a shot to sign Pettitte is Torre’s Dodgers. I believe in the end, Pettitte takes the Yankee’s one-year $10 million offer.

10. Jason Giambi, 1B- The big G can still hit the long ball, drive in runs, and take the walk. He is fun to have in the clubhouse also. I don’t think there is any question, especially with the Rays signing Burrell, that Giambi goes back to the A’s where there is strong mutual interest. Toronto, however, will be kicking the Giambi tires pretty hard.

Burrell To Rays

Tampa Bay Rays are about to sign OF Pat Burrell to a two-year $16 million contract. I like this move for the Rays. They can use Burrell as an DH.

The addition of Burrell gives the Ray’s lineup a right-handed power bat they needed, the Rays struggled against lefties in 2008. Burrell also gives some veteran leadership to a young contending club.

While I think Milton Bradley, Jason Giambi or Bobby Abreu would of been better options for the Rays, the signing of Burrell is a solid choice to help their offense and at a relatively low price.